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Clawson: How Far Did Union Households Swing Toward Trump?


"Did Donald Trump really make major inroads with union households? Sociologists Jake Rosenfeld and Patrick Denice take a look at the (imperfect) data and conclude that the story is more complicated than the headlines have made it out to be," writes Laura Clawson in The Daily Kos.

"On the one hand, 'In 2016 the partisan split among union households was smaller than at any time since Ronald Reagan’s re-election in 1984.' But there’s a but, and it centers on third-party candidates:

"'Trump did outdo Mitt Romney’s performance among union household voters – but by only 3 points. Much more significantly, between 2012 and 2016 the share of the union household vote going to the Democrat in the race shrank from 58% to 51%, with the share of union household members saying that they voted for neither the Democrat nor the Republican in the race tripling, from 2% to 6%.'

"This isn’t great news, but it’s a lot better than if union households had gone all in for Trump. And it’s much better if we understand where the union vote really (as far as the data allow us to know) went than if we assume it was all about Trump."

The Daily Kos 4/15


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